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>Date: Fri, 28 May 2004 17:16:19 +0100
>Subject: Re: [eurochase] Europe
>Reply-To: eurochase_ät_yahoogroups.com
>
>On Fri, 28 May 2004 14:41:19 +0200, Bernard Hulshof
><bernardhulshof_ät_wanadoo.nl> wrote:
>
> > ----- Original Message ----- From: "H.F. Harperink" <herman_ät_farpoint.nl>
> >
> >> What season? I heard Europe will become the new desert on the northern
> >> hemisphere!
> >
>
>Yes, a cool drought or at least a long dry period, looks possible
>
>
> > will change early next week, but for how long?
> >
>
>The northern hemisphere upper air pattern is a train wreck for those
>wanting convection over Europe - I dont see much prospect of this changing
>in the shortterm and probably all summer, but of course i hope i am wrong.
>
>The axis of the polar vortex appears to have shifted east from the pole and
>is also rather weak. This has allowed a very broad upper ridge to lie
>across N America and a corresponding very broad, low -amplitude longwave
>upper trough to be quasi stationary over Europe/N Atlantic. Hence, central
>N America is enjoying a very strong southerly flow from the Gulf and Europe
>gets a strong WNWly flow off the N Atlantic, Artic N America and Greenland.
>To illustrate this pattern, the 564dam thickness contour has hardly moved
>from its normal late winter position over N Africa (but see below), whilst
>564dam thickness line over N America is close to the artic circle. As a
>result, temperatures over N Africa at 12z toady were similar to those in
>London. Neither, are there any higher frequency high-amplitude ULL longwave
>troughs/upper ridges in the upper flow, to dig south over the eastern
>Atlantic to cause periods of warm air advection off N Africa. So there is
>little chance of any long or even short hot periods across N Europe to
>interrupt this gneral cool pattern, ATM.
>
>Basically, this summer is very likely to be a write-off for convection
>across northern Europe.
>
>Re: next week
>
>Thicknesses are fc to rise for a short time across W Europe, next week, as
>a "high" thickness ridge moves in off the Atlantic. As a result the 564dam
>contour may lie through central France/N Iberia by midweek. (In a "normal"
>year it should be periodically reaching as far north as southern
>Scandinavia by now). This ridge marks the dregs of some of the very warm
>air that was recently over N America. However, without an associated deep
>longwave upper trough digging south across the Eastern Atlantic and a
>strong upper ridge extending N across France and Iberia from N Africa,
>there is unlikely to be much WAA from N Africa and correspondlingly, of a
>hgih theta-E plume from there. Without this upper pattern, associated high
>theta-E plume, higher thicknesses or not, there is not much promise of
>storm potential for N Europe. There is also some doubt now that this high
>thickness ridge will ever reach N Europe (or at least the UK) before it
>collapses south acros Iberia.
>
>As, I said, I hope I am wrong.
>
>Nick
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